2018 may have come and gone, but the celebration of movies released last year is only just beginning. The 76th annual Golden Globe Awards take place Sunday, January 6, serving as the first major award show of the season. The Globes (the winners for which are chosen by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association) traditionally aren’t a great indicator for what films may take home Oscar gold, but they are a lot of fun, and this year is no exception. With a wide variety of films nominated and no clear frontrunners, anything is on the table. Below I’ve listed my predictions for the winners in the film categories—who I think will win, as well as who I believe should win. Click the links to read my full review of the nominated films.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
WILL WIN: “A Star Is Born”
SHOULD WIN: “Black Panther”
- “A Star Is Born” hasn’t faded or left the awards conversation ever since its release back in October. It seems like a pretty safe bet that it will take home the Globe for Best Motion Picture Drama, but don’t rule out Spike Lee’s “Blackkklansman,” a film that had a late summer release but which is reentering the conversation. But let’s be real, “Black Panther,” the Marvel blockbuster that was a sensation at the start of 2018, is the film everyone is rooting for.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
WILL WIN: Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”)
SHOULD WIN: Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
- Both ladies are great, and if Lady Gaga wins (which she likely will), I’ll be fine with it. But there’s something so sad and powerful about McCarthy’s performance as literary forger Lee Israel in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” that I can’t let go of.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
WILL WIN: Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
SHOULD WIN: Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
- “Bohemian Rhapsody” may not have been well-received, but Malek’s performance as Queen front man Freddie Mercury was—and with “A Star Is Born” dominating the other categories, I think the HFPA will do something different here.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
WILL WIN: “Green Book”
SHOULD WIN: “Green Book”
- “Green Book” is the feel-good movie of the year. Everyone loves this movie, and I’m sure the members of the HFPA do too.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
WILL WIN: Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
- The consistently great Colman is absolutely magnetic in “The Favourite,” which is one of the most nominated films this year. Elsie Fisher gives a marvelous performance in “Eighth Grade,” but really, I don’t think anyone else in this category stands a chance.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
WILL WIN: Christian Bale (“Vice”)
SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale (“Vice”)
- Awards voters always seem to be a sucker for a big transformations, and Bale is nearly unrecognizable as former Vice President Dick Cheney. And he’s good, even though the film itself is so-so.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion PictureWILL WIN: Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
SHOULD WIN: Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
- It’s possible that either Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz could overtake her for their performances in “The Favourite,” but King is already receiving a lot of buzz and her performance in Barry Jenkin’s “If Beale Street Could Talk” practically steals the movie.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
SHOULD WIN: Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
- All of the nominees in this category are great. I could see Richard E. Grant winning for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” possibly even Adam Driver for “Blackkklansman,” especially if that film ends up with no other wins. But for now I’m sticking with Mahershala Ali’s staid classical pianist in “Green Book,” a complete 180 from his previous winning performance in “Moonlight” that really shows his range.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
- There will be rioting in the streets if “Spider-Man” doesn’t win this. It’s not only the best animated film of the year, but one of the best films in general. But while many audiences are currently buzzing about it, it has some things working against it. It’s possible that voters may scoff at a superhero movie based on an existing Marvel property in favor of critical darling Pixar’s superhero movie “Incredibles 2.”
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
WILL WIN: “Roma”
SHOULD WIN: “Roma”
- ‘Nuff said.
Best Director – Motion Picture
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”)
SHOULD WIN: Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”)
- All solid contenders, but I see Cuaron taking this category. “Roma” is a masterpiece, and it deserves nominations in both the foreign language and drama categories—but since that didn’t happen, this award is the next best way to honor Cuaron’s vision.
Best Screenplay –
WILL WIN: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (“The Favourite”)
SHOULD WIN: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (“The Favourite”)
- This film’s weirdness could end up hurting its chances, but “The Favourite” has such a witty and biting script that I can see it doing well here.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
WILL WIN: Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”)
SHOULD WIN: Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”)
- The HFPA often likes to spread the love, and Best Original Score will likely be the only chance to honor “First Man.” Hurwitz’s score is beautiful, but don’t rule out Ludwig Goransson (“Black Panther”) or Marc Shaiman (“Mary Poppins Returns”).
Song – Motion Picture
WILL WIN: “Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”)
SHOULD WIN: “Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”)
- I’d love to see “All the Stars” from “Black Panther” win this. But Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga’s duet “Shallow” is everywhere—and it is a legitimately great song, the stand-out in a soundtrack filled with good music.
Who do you think will win a Golden Globe this year? Don’t forget to tune in to the show Sunday, January 6!